Euribor in 2026: analysts expect a slight decline

The euribor in 2026 remains a key point of interest for homebuyers and homeowners with variable-rate mortgages in Spain. After several months of increases during the second half of 2025, banks, analysts and economists now expect a moderate easing throughout 2026.

According to the latest consensus from the Funcas Panel, the euribor is expected to close 2026 below 2.2%, breaking the upward trend seen at the end of last year. This is particularly relevant for buyers considering a property purchase or mortgage financing in high-demand areas such as the Costa Blanca and the Costa Cálida.

Although the global economic environment remains uncertain, experts agree that changes in the euribor are likely to be gradual rather than abrupt.

What are the forecasts for the euribor in 2026?

The euribor closed December 2025 at 2.267%, its highest level in nine months, after five consecutive monthly increases. This development raised concerns among mortgage holders, who anticipated higher monthly repayments at their annual review.

However, the Funcas Panel expects the indicator to stabilise and ease slightly during 2026. While the provisional average for January stands at around 2.25%, forecasts point to a gradual improvement over the coming quarters.

Expected euribor evolution

• March 2026: 2.19%

• June 2026: 2.17%

• September 2026: 2.15%

• End of 2026: slight rebound to around 2.17%

If these projections materialise, the impact on variable mortgage repayments would be limited, with only marginal increases or even neutral revisions in many cases.

What role will the European Central Bank play?

According to the consensus, the European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to change official interest rates during 2026. While some market participants speculate about a possible adjustment in the second half of the year, the central scenario remains one of monetary stability.

This outlook supports a more predictable mortgage environment, an important factor for international buyers planning to finance a property purchase in Spain.

Economic outlook: growth, inflation and employment

The Funcas Panel has also updated its macroeconomic forecasts for 2026, pointing to a scenario of moderate economic slowdown, but without signs of recession.

Economic growth

• GDP growth forecast for 2026: 2.2%

• GDP growth in 2025: 2.9%

The slowdown is expected to come mainly from weaker investment, particularly in machinery and capital goods, and to a lesser extent from household consumption. Public consumption is expected to show slightly more strength.

Inflation

• Average inflation: 2.2%

• Inflation rate in December: 2.1%

• Core inflation: 2.3%

Despite a slight upward revision, inflation levels remain compatible with stable interest rates.

Employment and unemployment

• Employment growth: 1.7%

• Unemployment rate: expected to fall to 10% in 2026

Although job creation is expected to slow compared to previous years, the overall trend remains positive.

A still uncertain international environment

The Funcas report warns that global uncertainty is likely to persist in the short term. Europe remains one of the regions most exposed to geopolitical risks and trade tensions.

Analysts note that the European Union has yet to agree on a unified strategy to address the shifting global economic balance, which adds pressure to the European outlook. Even so, the consensus believes that this adverse context will not translate into immediate financial instability, reinforcing expectations of euribor stability.

What does this mean for property buyers?

For those considering buying a home in 2026, particularly on the Costa Blanca and the Costa Cálida, this scenario suggests:

• greater predictability in mortgage financing,

• lower risk of sharp increases in repayments,

• and a more stable environment for medium-term planning.

Conclusion

Current forecasts suggest that the euribor in 2026 could see a slight decline compared to the end of 2025, remaining at manageable levels with limited impact on variable-rate mortgages. While the international context remains complex, economists rule out abrupt changes in the short term.

At Esentya Estate, we help international buyers assess the right time to purchase property on the Costa Blanca and the Costa Cálida, supporting them with clear and up-to-date financial insight throughout the buying process.

Sources: Funcas, Panel of Analysts, BBVA Research